• Iran, Oman agree to share Strait of Hormuz revenue
• Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July
• Meta’s $16.6 billion settlement is a challenge to TikTok and YouTube
• Nvidia 1.1% lower after blowout second quarter leaves investors unmoved

Forex

USD rose with prices hitting the 200-day SMA at 99.16. The next major Fib level of the 2026 low to high sits at 99.41. US Core PCE data printed in line with expectations, with the annual figure holding steady at 3.3% while the unrounded monthly number came in at 0.246%. That points to a one-month annualised rate of close to 3%. Money markets modestly increased their bets on a September rate hike to just above 40% versus just below pre-data release. Otherwise, all eyes are on Jackson Hole, with optimism relatively high for Hormuz passage in the Middle East. That said, there were reports Russia’s Putin is looking to escalate the war in Ukraine.

EUR dipped though prices stayed above its 200-day SMA at 1.1629. ECB hawk Schnabel said the “economy looks to be gaining further momentum” which means the ECB might have to characterise growth risks to the upside at its September meeting. That keeps another hike in play early into next year, after the one virtually fully priced in for a few weeks time.

GBP underperformed as cable slid below 1.36. The Ofgem price cap is to be lifted by 4% from October 1st as expected, with a well-regarded research firm seeing a further 9% rise in January. That is unwelcome news for UK policymakers and the new PM and Chancellor ahead of the Autumn Budget.

JPY outperformed with the major failing to make fresh highs on the week. The current probability of 85% for a BoJ rate hike has not been higher since the last meeting in June. The conviction in the market strengthened further today following the PPI services data that saw the annual rate rebound back to 3.6% in July versus estimates of 3.2%. That matched the highs from this year and was just below the record high of 3.7% in 2024. This data plays an important role for the BoJ in their inflation outlook discussions.

Stocks

US stocks: The S&P 500 lost 0.02% to close at 7,676. The Nasdaq closed up 0.05% at 29,225. The Dow Jones settled lower by 0.21% at 5`3,469. Stocks traded little changed ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close. Sectors were mixed, with Industrials, Utilities, Tech and Energy in the green, while Healthcare and Communication Services saw the most weakness. Meta gained 1.1% after it agreed to pay over $16 billion to settle with 29 US states to end a trial over teen’s addiction to Facebook and Instagram. Salesforce jumped over 14.4% after hours as it raised annual revenue forecasts on AI product momentum. Nvidia delivered a quarterly top and bottom-line beat after the market closed, with the former figure more than doubling from a year ago. The world’s largest company also provided current quarter revenue guidance that comfortably topped expectations. The stock slipped 1% after hours.

Asian Stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC stocks traded mostly positive after gains Stateside amid Middle East Hormuz passage hopes and lower crude prices. The ASX 200 eased after earnings and hot CPI. The Nikkei 225 declined after firm PPI data cemented a BoJ rate hike but rebounded back to 66,000. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with Alibaba supported by founder Jack Ma purchasing HKD 600 million worth of stock.

Gold fell below $4,600 as a stronger dollar and steady bond yields slowed the recent strong rally. That has been driven by fiscal worries and policy credibility.  

Chart of the Day –Nvidia messy

Nvidia posted another quarter of record earnings, but the stock price was relatively unmoved with expectations so high. The chart of the world’s most valuable company has been fairly choppy in recent months with no long-term trend. Recently, prices have found some support around the 50 and 100-day SMAs at $207.70/78. A major Fib retracement level (38.2%) of the 2026 low to high sits nearby at $208.93. The swing high from mid-August sits at $227.92 with the record high form May at $236.54. If we lose initial support at the SMAs, the midpoint of this year’s move is $200.41, with the 200-day SMA at $195.54. Before these latest results, the stock had performed in line with the broader S&P 500, rising around 13% year-to-date.