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Nvidia Surges as Markets Eye Jackson Hole | Analyst’s Desk

Key Market Developments

Iran talks sputter as Trump spurns a return to June Iran-Mou
White House weighing new round of tariffs on chips
Dollar, Treasury yields are little changed ahead of Jackson Hole
Nvidia jumps 8.6% as investors relish 2028 guidance after stellar earnings

Forex Markets: Dollar Steady Ahead of Jackson Hole

USD had a quiet day with prices trading around the 200-day SMA at 99.16. The main event of the week is near with Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech front and centre. One-week implied volatility is well below recent averages, pointing to some complacency about any impact from the new Fed boss. Fed reforms, Treasury buybacks and their affect on Fed policymaking, and the central bank’s reaction function will all be of interest. But perhaps we will only hear about the former. See more below.

EUR printed a doji candle with a tight range ahead of Warsh. Prices are tracking above the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. Aside form Jackson Hole, French politics and the first presidential televised debate are in the spotlight. Right-winger Marine Le Pen is leading in the polls and the difference between French and German bonds is nearing fresh multi-year highs.

GBP dipped to 1.3570 before paring losses and closing very marginally lower on the day. BoE rate hike expectations have softened through the week while sentiment which had offered sterling support in previous months appears to be easing slightly. That could be more important as we head into the Autumn and big focus on PM Burnham’s first Budget.

JPY edged higher for a fourth straight day. There were not many surprises from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino whose tone was consistent with pricing of September’s likely 25bps rate hike, noting in both of his speeches the BoJ needed to pay more attention to upside inflation risks than before.

Equity Markets: Nvidia Rally Drives US Tech Higher

US stocks: The S&P 500 added 0.72% to close at 7,731. The Nasdaq closed up 1.43% at 29,642. The Dow Jones settled higher by 0.2% at 5`3,574. Gains were driven solely by the Tech sector which rallied 3.4%. The world’s most valuable company, Nvidia (+8.7%) , posted strong earnings, including robust data centre revenue and upbeat long-term guidance. But gains were not broad-based, with the equal-weight S&P closing lower and every other sector finishing in the red. Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary were the main laggards. Salesforce soared 22.6% and boosted the software sector as a whole by 7.7% on profit beats, a strong outlook and accelerating AI-related growth. A large gain on its Anthropic investment also helped. CrowdStrike jumped 20.5% beating annual revenue forecasts as AI threats rose.

Asian Stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC stocks were mixed with eyes on Nvidia’s results and an initial subdued reaction to the top and bottom line beats. The ASX 200 underperformed amid more earnings and calls for more RBA tightening after the recent CPI figures. The Nikkei 225 traded between red and green. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with several earnings.

Gold

Gold printed a doji, which was hardly surprising ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The dollar and bond yields were quiet too. A more hawkish Fed Chair speech, reaffirming his commitment to returning inflation to 2%, could dent the recent rally.

Day Ahead: Tokyo CPI and Warsh Take Centre Stage

Tokyo headline CPI for August is expected to inch lower to 1.9% from 2% in July, and core to 1.8% from 1.9% in July. A close-to-consensus print should not derail market confidence in a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its meeting in mid-September. There’s currently around 21bps currently priced in, and comes after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a policy follow-up to FX intervention, while July CPI surprised to the upside.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed’s new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank, either through a “big picture” talk focused on the task forces or through a policy-relevant talk that cleans up some missteps in recent communications and presents scenarios for the outlook. Given his desire to provide little information about the policy outlook, comments will most likely veer to the former, which means it would be a surprise if he moves away from his stated distaste of forward guidance.

Reassuring markets the Fed has a plan to lower inflation to target was something Warsh didn’t do well at his July FOMC meeting press conference. But consensus believes he will double down and withhold any signals about monetary policy drivers. That said, with the odds of a September rate hike hovering around 40%, and with NPF and CPI still to come before that meeting, the chance of a rate hike could increase as the FOMC may be reluctant to risk triggering bond market volatility.

Chart of the Day: Is the Dollar Pullback Just Consolidation?

Fed’s Warsh may have to steer a tricky and steady line in his first Jackson Hole speech. He may not go there at all, which consensus thinks is likely as we have said. But bond markets will be watching after recent ructions. To dramatically alter his communication and provide clearer guidance could risk him being viewed as beholden to the Treasury and hence undermine his credibility. But if he sticks to his guns and says little on his views on Fed action, he risks triggering further bond selling.

Chart wise, after last Wednesday’s sharp breakdown to levels last seen in May and the midpoint of the 2026 low to high, prices have steadied with a mild uptick back to the 200-day SMA at 99.16. We are now also on the short-term downward trendline from the late July top. This could be bearish consolidation before another move lower. Otherwise, the index needs to get above the 100-day SMA around 99.68 to change the downtrend.

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Nvidia Surges as Markets Eye Jackson Hole | Analyst’s Desk

Key Market Developments

Forex Markets: Dollar Steady Ahead of Jackson Hole

Equity Markets: Nvidia Rally Drives US Tech Higher

Gold

Day Ahead: Tokyo CPI and Warsh Take Centre Stage

Chart of the Day: Is the Dollar Pullback Just Consolidation?

Latest Financial Market Analysis

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