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Stocks mixed, tech drags ahead of Nvidia and Jackson Hole
Updated Updated Tue, 2026 August 25 05:01
- Bessent unveils anti-Iran global sanctions plan, signals China not exempt
- President Trump vows to double tariffs on Canadian autos, escalating fight
- Yields drop on report Treasury could use general account to fund buybacks
- Gold rally continues momentum ahead of US inflation, Jackson Hole event
Forex
USD steadied near recent lows as it found mild support around the halfway point of this year’s low to high at 98.67. The 200-day SMA sits above at 99.41. Calendar and event risk this week is significant and the potential for some moderate gains in the greenback broadly in the short run is strong as investors pare back positioning. But whether that changes the bearish momentum from highs above 101.50 recently is debatable. AI earnings including Nvidia, core PCE and Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech on Friday will be watched. The US Treasury and Secretary Bessent are also new more active players in markets now, with recent yen and bond buyback intervention potentially the biggest market movers of all. We note we are also still in summer markets where liquidity is thinner and price action may be exaggerated.
EUR was very modestly softer as the recent rally paused for breath below 1.17. Yield differentials have narrowed over the past week as US Treasury yields have climbed so eroding some euro support. There’s also some political risk being priced in amid a widening between different euro area yields which needs monitoring as we near French and German elections. A September ECB rate hike remains nailed on.
GBP was flat on the day as cable sat just below recent swing highs at 1.3675. Last week’s big UK data dump didn’t change the picture for the BoE with mainly upside risks to inflation from rising oil prices countered by benign domestic price pressures. With little on the UK and sterling calendar, prices will be driven by broader market developments and the dollar.
JPY weakened mildly after last week saw the major bounce off the 200-day SMA at 158.31. The long-term upward trendline, now around 159.75, remains long-term support/resistance. Tokyo inflation data is the main yen event though the Treasury market could be a big driver. There will also be one eye on the mid-month BoJ meeting in September, with a strong chance (80%) of another rate hike.
Stocks
US stocks: The S&P 500 lost 0.28% to close at 7,653. The Nasdaq closed down 0.98% at 29,024. The Dow Jones settled higher by 0.26% at 5`3,417. Stocks were mostly positive, with the Dow Jones outperforming in the green, while the other major indices closed lower. Weakness was led by the Nasdaq as the Technology sector underperformed, with both semiconductor and memory names under pressure. Despite the broader downside, the equal-weight S&P 500 was flat. Consumer Staples, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials led the gains, while Tech, Energy and Industrials were the only sectors in the red. Nvidia slid 2.9% and is down for seven straight days, ahead of its results after the close on Wednesday. It said customers have been notified of price increases of more than 15% on AI servers. Alibaba closed 0.7% lower after it priced a HK$80bn share placement.
Asian Stocks: Futures are mixed. APAC stocks traded mixed amid a fresh US-Canada trade war and investors awaiting key events later in the week. The ASX 200 was higher on mining and materials strength amid several big earnings. The Nikkei 225 was choppy with tech under pressure. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were muted as Alibaba got hit after launching an HK$80bn placement at a discount to fund AI development. This rekindled concerns over the returns from China’s fierce spending race.
Gold saw more upside as bugs closed in on $4,700. The 200-day SMA resides at $4,504. US fiscal and government borrowing risks, and policy credibility are boosting the precious metal.
Chart of the Day – USD/CAD rebounds from oversold
Unsurprisingly, CAD was the clear G10 underperformer yesterday after the unexpected breakdown of trade negotiations between the US and Canada, with the latter imposing 50% tariffs on US goods. The Canadian government promised more domestic aid, but a renewed phase of uncertainty has been placed upon business and investment. That said, the loonie reaction hasn’t been huge, pointing to markets hoping for a deal in the coming weeks amid a fluid situation. The major hit the 200-day SMA at 1.3845 after rebounding off the major Fib (61.8%) of the 2026 low to high move at 1.3774. The 50% level is at 1.3864 though prices likely need to get above 1.3955 to break the medium-term downtrend from the June/July highs.
