This week is packed with big economic data points, amid rising Treasury yields pushing to multi-decade highs. The monthly US labour market report should be the highlight, with the current three-month average at 71k sitting near the top of the estimated range consistent with balance between labour demand and supply. That has seen Fed officials declare their focus is now squarely on inflation and the price stability part of their dual mandate. For NFP, upward headline revisions will have a greater impact on market variables than a negative revision. Otherwise, the decline in the participation rate over the past year has capped the unemployment rate.

There will be more job market readings in advance of payrolls including JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls that may land around 60k on Wednesday, plus Challenger job layoffs and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. We also get the Fed’s preferred PCE gauges of inflation for August released on Wednesday.  A 0.2% m/m print would be a third straight print averaging around this relatively tame figure, which could suggest more patience in pricing the Fed’s next move. 

The dollar enjoyed another strong week, but prices pulled back on Friday partially easing their overbought condition. A push to the year-to-date high from June at 101.80 will need hot data to really cement an October Fed rate hike. That is currently priced at around a 65% chance. Gold might also then breakdown through near-term support around $4,250.

Friday’s eurozone HICP report is the last major inflation data ahead of the next ECB meeting at the end of October.  Core inflation remains at the same level as it was before the Middle East war started – 2.4% in both February and August. Eyes will once again be on whether signs of second-round effects are kicking in. Stronger-than-expected figures, coupled with sustained energy price pressures, could shift market pricing further in favour of a rate hike. This is needed to support the oversold EUR/USD, which has sunk recently close to long-term lows at 1.1325.

In Brief: major data releases of the week

Tuesday, 29 September 2026

• RBA Meeting: A fourth 25bps rate hike this year is virtually fully priced in, taking the policy rate to 4.6%. Another 40bps of policy tightening is predicted by June. Recent RBA rhetoric has escalated with Governor Bullock highlighting upside inflation risks. A split vote is likely. AUD/USD found support at the end of last week at the 200-day SMA at 0.7021. A major Fib level also sits at 0.7022 reinforcing this support zone.

Wednesday, 30 September 2026

• Australia Inflation: August monthly headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.5% m/m and 4.1% y/y from 3.5%. The trimmed mean is expected to rise 0.2% m/m, lifting the annual pace to 3.6%. Risks remain tilted to the upside due to rising fuel costs. Policymakers have warned they would hike rates if inflation risks build.    

• US Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation metric is expected to rise one-tenth to 0.3% m/m and remain unchanged at 3.3% y/y in August. Money markets have recently moved and see a two in three chance of an October rate hike.

Thursday, 1 October 2026

• Tokyo CPI: This is the forerunner to nationwide inflation data. After three straight firm readings, another strong print would add to pressure on the BoJ to continue normalising policy. This comes with markets currently pricing only around a 20% probability of a rate hike in October. USD/JPY hit strong resistance on Friday around the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 158.59 and 158.44 and sold off sharply.  

• US ISM Manufacturing: Manufacturing is seen rising to 55.0 from 54.6, while prices paid are expected to tick up to 72.0 from 71.1. Higher prices are being driven by the Middle East conflict, tariffs and the AI buildout. That is raising concerns about inflation broadening out.

Friday, 2 October 2026

• Eurozone Inflation: Consensus sees the September headline ticking up three-tenths to 3.5%, and core by one-tenth to 2.5%. The former is due to the rebound in energy prices through August, while indirect effects should remain relatively modest.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: The headline is expected to print at 100k jobs in September, below the prior 162k, after June and July were revised higher by a cumulative 55k. The 3-month average is 71k. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 4.1%, and wage growth is seen at 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y.